FTI Combat Sports prophecy: UFC 205

by Chris Asbrock

UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor
11/12/2016
7:00 P.M. EST (PPV starts at 10 P.M.)
UFC Fight Pass, FS1, Pay-per-view

The wait for fight fans has finally come to an end. On Saturday night, the UFC will make history and bring MMA fans a fight card from the world’s most famous arena, Madison Square Garden. Dana White and the rest of the UFC brass have been hedging their bets each year that the state of New York would legalize MMA. Once the bill was signed, the wheels were launched into motion to bring a UFC card to New York City. White responded by putting together the biggest and best card in their history.

The next few pay-per-view cards will be big as the calendar will be turning to 2017. This is the card that will help cap off a great 2016 and lead the promotion into the new year. Let’s take a look at this much anticipated fight card and the picks from FTI Combat Sports’ own Kirk Metzler and Jin Kim.

Raquel Pennington (7-5) vs Miesha Tate (18-6)

This women’s bantamweight fight brings some intrigue to the table. Miesha Tate is coming off her loss to Amanda Nunes, in her very first UFC title defense. Raquel Pennington is on a three fight win streak since losing to Holly Holm at UFC 184 in February of 2015. Her two fights this year have gone the distance, while Tate’s two fights were stopped before it went to the judges. Tate is known as one of the toughest and best bantamweight fighters in the world and has a chance to get back into the title picture with a win. The same can be said for Pennington. A win over Tate will also put Pennington in a great spot to put her name into the championship discussion.

Both fighters have a propensity to have their fights end up in the judges hands. Don’t expect this fight to end with the judges decision. Miesha Tate is owns the advantage in wrestling, grappling and striking compared to many in the division. That is definitely the case against Pennington. While Pennington is a good fighter, she just isn’t in the same league as Miesha. Pennington is tough, having only been finished once in her career, back in 2012. I think the toughness of both fighters will play a huge roll but Tate will wear Pennington down and submit her in the third round.

Chris’ Pick: Tate
Jin’s Pick: Tate
Kirk’s Pick: Tate

Donald Cerrone (31-7) vs Kelvin Gastelum (12-2)

*** Fight is off due to Gastelum failing to make weight ***

Chris’ Pick: Cerrone
Jin’s Pick: Gastelum
Kirk’s Pick: Cerrone

Yoel Romero (11-1) vs Chris Weidman (13-1)

Chris Weidman was one of the fighters who worked very hard trying to get MMA legalized in his home state of New York. This fight means a hell of a lot to Weidman, who was determined to be on this card. The crowd will certainly be behind Weidman in this fight. Weidman will need to use that momentum and support from the crowd early because Romero, who is a dymanic and powerful striker, will come to finish him. This fight will be fought standing for the first few rounds.

Cardio has been a big issue for Romero in fights. Romero is one of the greatest wrestlers in the world and certainly the UFC but he tends to tire out as the fight progresses because he chooses to try and strike his opponent. If Weidman can survive the onslaught of striking that he will experience early, that will favor him. Since both men are extremely good wrestlers, it will be interesting to see how this fight plays out if it goes to the ground. Weidman will not be able to take Romero to the ground unless Romero is exhausted. Expect Weidman to have his hands raised at the end of the fight.

Chris’ Pick: Weidman
Jin’s Pick: Romero
Kirk’s Pick: Romero

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (C)(12-0) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-0) for strawweight title

This is the first of three championship fights and could be the most lopsided bout. Joanna Champion is one of the nastiest fighters in the promotion. She is a bad woman who will do some serious damage. There isn’t much to say about this fight as Joanna holds the advantage in every category in this fight. While Karolina is undefeated, she just isn’t quite the fighter that Joanna is. Joanna has rolled through everyone she has faced and that does look to change here. The unanimous pick is for Joanna to win via TKO/KO.

Chris’ Pick: Jedrzejczyk
Jin’s Pick: Jedrzejczyk
Kirk’s Pick: Jedrzejczyk

Tyron Woodley (16-3) vs Stephen Thompson (13-1) for welterweight title

This is the second of the title fights and could be the best of the three. Tyron Woodley is coming into this fight on a three fight win streak, including a title win over Robbie Lawler just over three months ago. Thompson heads into this fight on a seven fight win streak and is gunning for the title. For fight fans, this one will be a lot of fun to watch, simply due to the competitive nature of these two. Both Thompson and Woodley are very powerful strikers who can end a fight with one punch.

Thompson has both the height and reach advantage and will look to use that to bring home the title. Both fighters can stand and strike and both can wrestle. With that being said, look for both guys to stand and strike throughout the fight. Woodley did a tremendous job of battering Lawler, as he won via TKO in the first round. Expect that to be the same recipe that Woodley would like to bring to the table in this fight. Look for Thompson to survive the striking of Woodley and win the title via the knockout.

Chris’ Pick: Thompson
Jin’s Pick: Thompson
Kirk’s Pick: Woodley

Conor McGregor (20-3) vs Eddie Alvarez (C)(28-4) for lightweight title

The UFC has certainly hitched their wagon to Conor McGregor. The biggest star in the UFC can certainly sell a fight. For some, McGregor’s act is wearing thin. Regardless of how he acts, you cannot downplay the fact Conor brings in pay-per-view buys. That will be the case for 205 as the press conference was what people were talking about. Conor came in, late as usual, wearing a fur coat and proceeded to take Alvarez’s belt and put it over by his. Things got a little crazy after that when both fighters had to be held back. You can’t dispute the power of Conor but you can’t look past the toughness of Alvarez.

Alvarez is coming off a fight with Rafael Dos Anjos where he dominated the champion, knocking him out in the first round. Conor is looking to become the first champion in two separate divisions at the same time in UFC history. This has the makings of a great fight. Conor looks much better at 155 lbs as the weight cut has proven to not be tough on him. Alvarez is coming into this fight looking fantastic physically. With that being said, McGregor is a very powerful striker and can drop someone with one punch. Eddie has been known to take some damage so that will be something to look at. Just like Romero, Conor is one who can tire out as the fight goes on. Most people are not giving Alvarez much of a chance in this fight. Alvarez will take a few shots but his wrestling and powerful striking will be the difference.

Chris’ Pick: Alvarez
Jin’s Pick: McGregor
Kirk’s Pick: McGregor

Full UFC 205 Pre-Fight Press Conference (uncensored…very strong language)