Photo Credit: Esther Lin MMAFighting.com
by Chris Asbrock
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
10/6/2018
6:30 P.M. EST (PPV Main card starts at 10 P.M.)
UFC Fight Pass, FX, Pay-Per-View
There is no doubt that this UFC 229 fight card is the biggest card of the year. There is no fighter that elicits more attention than Conor McGregor. Conor consistently is a ratings draw for the UFC and his drawing power will certainly come into play for this massive card. The return to the octagon for Conor, against one of the most devastating fighters in the world, is a recipe for a record breaking pay-per-view event. This card from top to bottom is loaded with talent and great fights.
Let’s take a look at this much anticipated fight card and the fight winners with myself and my FTI Combat Sports colleague, Jin Kim.
Felice Herrig (14-7) vs Michelle Waterson (15-6)
This is a great fight to kick off the main card. Both Herrig and Waterson are experienced fighters with solid resumes. Both fighters are coming into this fight with something to prove. Waterson has lost two of her last three, but did gain a crucial split decision victory Cortney Casey-Sanchez in her last fight in April. On the other side, Herrig was on a roll, winning four straight before dropping her last fight to Karolina Kowalkiewicz via split decision in April. A victory for either fighter will be big for them moving forward. This is a fight that could go either way, as both women are tough as nails. This matchup will feature speed versus strength, so it will be intriguing to see which will come away with the victory. The strength of Herrig could play a major part in this fight as she attempts over 10 significant strikes per minute. With that being the case, Herrig is only successful on 35% of those strikes. Waterson has the speed advantage so her being able to defend the strikes could be crucial. The biggest key to this fight will be whether Waterson can take Herrig to the ground. Waterson attempts 0.21 takedowns per minute but has succeeded on 89% of those takedown attempts. Herrig has been solid at defending the takedown, so if Waterson can get her to the ground, it will be interesting to see how the fight plays out. If this fight goes the distance, the advantage goes to Herrig, but if the fight ends early, look for Waterson to get the finish on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Waterson
Jin’s Pick: Waterson
Derrick Lewis (20-5) vs Alexander Volkov (30-6)
This matchup features two men who have a lot of power and knockout ability. For his size and strength, you would expect a lot more first round finishes from Derrick Lewis. Instead, Lewis is more likely to wear down his opponent before landing that knockout shot in the last round of the fight. Lewis boasts an impressive 85% win rate via the KO/TKO. Lewis is coming off a massive decision victory over Francis Ngannou in his last fight, while Volkov has defeated four solid fighters in his only four UFC events. Volkov knocked out Fabricio Werdum and Stefan Struve in his previous two fights. Both Lewis and Volkov are coming into their fight with some momentum and will look to continue that with a victory. With Lewis being a powerful striker, he doesn’t possess the ability to land a lot of significant strikes, which shouldn’t scare Volkov in this fight. Lewis only attempts 5.70 significant strikes per minute, succeeding on only 51% of those strikes. Volkov has the height and reach advantage so if he can keep this fight standing, it should be a solid night for the Russian.
Chris’ Pick: Volkov
Jin’s Pick: Lewis
Dominick Reyes (9-0) vs Ovince Saint Preux (23-11)
This is a fight with a lot of intrigue and questions. Reyes is a powerful newcomer, who can knock out anyone, while St. Preux is a highly athletic veteran. Reyes shot up the ranks relatively quickly, with three nice first round finishes, in his first three UFC fights. The biggest question in this fight is how Reyes will look against the veteran OSP. Reyes is a mostly unknown fighter and you know exactly what you’re going to get from OSP. This fight is quite the step up in level for Reyes. The power and strength of OSP versus the fantastic athleticism of Reyes will be fun to watch. Reyes has the height advantage, while OSP has a nice three inch reach advantage, so it will be crucial for Reyes to stay at distance and safe from the powerful strikes of OSP. Reyes defends over 60% of significant strikes, so that could be a major factor in this fight. Reyes has impressive knockout power an attempts 13.62 significant strikes per minute, connecting on over 50% of those attempted. Reyes is incredibly dangerous on the ground but hasn’t shown his dangerousness much since he has knocked out his opponent in six of his nine fights. Should these two choose to stand up and battle, it could make for an action packed fight, as that would mean someone is getting knocked out. If it goes to the ground, look for Reyes to eventually take control and wear down the veteran.
Chris’ Pick: Reyes
Jin’s Pick: OSP
Tony Ferguson (23-3) vs Anthony Pettis (21-7)
This is the first of two massive lightweight fights. Both Tony Ferguson and Anthony Pettis are major figures in this division. Anthony Pettis was once at the top of the lightweight division until he lost his title to Rafael dos Anjos, via decision, at UFC 185. Pettis went into a tailspin, losing five of his next seven fights. He did however rebound nicely, with a submission victory over Michael Chiesa at UFC 226. This matchup against Ferguson is the perfect fight for Pettis to rise back into title contention with a win. On the other side, Ferguson is one of the top fighters in the division and was set to face Khabib Nurmagomedov numerous times before those fights eventually felt through, for one reason or another. With those fights falling through and Ferguson suffering a devastating knee injury, Nurmagomedov won the lightweight title and is now headlining this card against Conor. Ferguson, who has always seemed to be on the outside looking in, will be thrust back into the title picture, with a win, against the winner of the main event. Ferguson brings a frenetic striking pace to the cage, with just under 12 significant strikes attempted per minute. Ferguson has a four inch reach advantage over Pettis and could really use that to his benefit and shorten this fight. The big X factor in this fight is how well the injured knee of Ferguson holds up. He is returning from that massive knee injury months ahead of schedule and that could come into play during this fight. Ferguson is three years older than Pettis, but also has a size advantage. With that being the case, Ferguson is the favorite coming into this fight for good reason. If these guys decide to stand up and strike, Ferguson has the advantage. If the fight goes to the ground, Ferguson has the advantage as well, with his submission game. Pettis is no chump of an opponent and is capable of pulling off the upset. Don’t expect Ferguson to lose this fight, as he is the better fighter on a hot streak.
Chris’ Pick: Ferguson
Jin’s Pick: Ferguson
Khabib Nurmagomedov (C)(26-0) vs Conor McGregor (21-3) for Lightweight title
Finally. Finally, these two will meet in the cage. There is a lot of bad blood between these two and it will all be finally settled inside the octagon. This fight marks the much anticipated return to the octagon for McGregor, who certainly jumped in with both feet, facing the undefeated Nurmagomedov. This fight is quite possibly the toughest fight to predict a winner due to the fact of the talent and skillset of these two incredible fighters. Conor McGregor is considered by many to be the golden boy of the UFC. While it may be true, McGregor has done nothing to let them down in terms of promotion or results. Conor is the only fighter in the organization to hold two belts in two weight classes at one time. He also is the only one that when he fights, it feels like an event. McGregor took advantage of the promotion the UFC thrust behind him, by dropping his opponents like flies. Even though he dropped a fight against Nate Diaz, their rematch was bigger and better after Conor came away with the victory. He has been able to use every single bit of leverage to his advantage to get what he wants. The UFC has simply had to cave in to his demands because of the money he brings in. One thing that Conor does better than anyone else, is his uncanny ability to get inside his opponents head and wreck them mentally.
His opponent, Khabib Nurmagomedov is truly a one man wrecking crew. He has dumptrucked every opponent he has faced, on his way to a stunning 26-0 record. It was only a matter of time before Khabib became lightweight champion. He was unlucky during a period of time, where he suffered a few injuries but during that time, McGregor was winning and people were calling for these two to meet in the octagon. Once Khabib was able to get back into the cage, he continued his dominance, destroying anyone in his path. It was only a matter of time before these two were going to battle it out.
When you look at this fight as a whole, there are only two realistic scenarios on how it will end. McGregor is either going to knock Khabib out inside two rounds or Khabib will destroy Conor on the ground before the fight goes to the judges. While it is extremely difficult to pick a winner, the two styles make it very easy to break this fight down. Conor McGregor is one of the most devastating strikers in the history of the UFC, in terms of his timing. McGregor has this ability to time his strikes perfectly, usually resulting in devastating consequences for his opponent. He knocked out the seemingly unbeatable Jose Aldo in just 13 seconds, to capture his first title in record-setting fashion. If he is on his game, McGregor will be able to time his left, landing it on the chin of Khabib. That is where Conor can win this fight. If Khabib is not careful in his takedown attempts, McGregor can tag him with one of his signature lefts, turning out the lights of the champion.
The other style in this fight is the incredible ground game of the Russian. If Khabib retains his title, it will be won if the fight goes to the ground. The sooner Khabib can take this fight to the ground, the quicker the fight will end. Khabib must be incredibly careful if he attempts any takedown, as McGregor can time up his strikes and tag Khabib if he tries a takedown attempt. Khabib does attempt a lot of takedowns, mostly to keep his opponent guessing and off balance. Expect Khabib to continue to go for those takedowns to keep Conor guessing at what he is going to do. However, that could work against him in this fight, allowing McGregor to time up his takedown attempts. The biggest factor is how long this fight lasts. McGregor has been known to struggle with his condition the longer a fight goes on. He has been fortunate to knock out his opponents early in the fight. The longer this fight lasts, the more it will favor Khabib, allowing him to wear down McGregor and eventually take him to the ground. Once this fight goes to the ground, Khabib will wear down and pound McGregor into a loss.
Chris’ Pick: Khabib
Jin’s Pick: Conor
Below is the preliminary card for this UFC on Fox card:
Preliminary Card
UFC Fight Pass (6:30 pm)
Ryan LaFlare (13-2) vs Tony Martin (12-4)
Yana Kunitskaya (10-4) vs Lina Lansberg (8-3)
Scott Holtzman (10-2) vs Alan Patrick (15-1)
Chris Asbrock is a staff writer and analyst for Impact Sports Cincinnati and can be followed on Twitter Follow @iamchrisasbrock and Follow @FTICombatSports
Make sure to check out my podcast on Anchor
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