ISC Combat Sports prophecy: UFC 249

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UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
5/9/2020
6:00 P.M. EST (PPV Main card starts at 10 P.M.)
ESPN+, ESPN, ESPN+ Pay-Per-View

The Coronavirus pandemic has completely thrown everything for a loop. UFC President Dana White was not about to let the virus keep the promotion from putting events out. The UFC announced three upcoming fights, beginning with the biggest fight card of the year, UFC 249. With the pandemic closing sports leagues and cancelling seasons, Dana White was hell bent on keeping the promotion going. The UFC 249 card will move forward in an empty arena. This is the second largest indoor event that will be behind closed doors. In early April, the WWE put on their largest event, Wrestlemania in front of no fans. The UFC will now be doing the same. Originally White had lined up a private island that would have hosted many fight cards. The idea of “fight island” quickly became an unlikely dream with

It seems like it has been years since we have been able to watch a live UFC fight card, but here we are. Let’s take a look at this much anticipated fight card and the fight winners.

Yorgan De Castro (6-0) vs Greg Hardy (5-2)

This is an interesting fight to kick off the main card and one that does bring some intrigue. In his six professional fights, Yorgan De Castro has seen two of them go the distance, while winning the other four via TKO/KO in the first round. However, this is just the second fight in the UFC for De Castro and the first one on the main stage of a pay-per-view. On the other side, Greg Hardy, a former sixth round pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, turned to MMA after his NFL career went sideways. Hardy burst onto the MMA scene with three first round TKO/KO wins, all three were within the first minute of the fight. The UFC fell in love with Hardy and brought him into the organization. Since then, Hardy has had a mixed bag of results. Going 2-2-1 over his last five fights, has him looking to rebound with a big win. This is De Castro’s second fight in the UFC so a victory for him will be a major boost as well.

Hardy has the height, weight and reach advantage and will should use that to help his cause. Hardy uses that to his advantage as well, landing an average of 4-42 significant strikes, compared to 1.85 for De Castro. If these two choose to stay standing, this could be a fight that delivers some monster punches and most likely a knockout. Neither fighter is used to their fight going the distance so conditioning could play a big part. If the fight goes the distance, it could be a toss up and will most likely be an ugly fight to watch. You can look for Hardy to land more significant strikes, causing more damage to De Castro and earning the victory so defense will be key for De Castro if he has any chance of pulling the upset.

Chris’ Pick: Hardy

Calvin Kattar (20-4) vs Jeremy Stephens (28-17)

The matchup between Calvin Kattar and Jeremy Stephens has Fight of the Night potential as both men are badly in need of a victory. Stephens hasn’t won a fight in over two years, while Kattar last saw victory just over a year ago. In his last five fights, dating back to February 24, 2018, Stephens has a record of 1-3-1 during that fight span. Stephens had a No Contest, due to an accidental eye poke, with Yair Rodriguez in September before losing the rematch a month later. In November, Kattar lost a decision to Zabit Magomedsharipov. Magomedsharipov is a common opponent for Stephens and Kattar and both suffered the same fate at the hands of Magomedsharipov.

This fight lines up rather well for Stephens to come away with a victory as these fighters have contrasting styles. Kattar does come in as the favorite and that makes this fight so interesting. Kattar is a boxer who likes to stand up and throw punches. Kattar has quick hands which could pose a problem for Stephens, if Stephens chooses to stand in there and trade shots. Stephens has shown to lose his composure in previous fights, going away from the game plan and causing him to pick up a loss. Kattar poses that same threat to Stephens with his striking ability. Kattar’s striking quickness could cause Stephens to go away from the technical side of his game plan, throw caution to the wind and try to land the knockout. If Stephens sticks to being technical, he comes away with the victory. If not, look for Kattar to strike his way to victory.

Chris’ pick: Kattar

Francis Ngannou (14-3) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (10-0)

If you like heavyweight fights, this is a can’t miss. Both Francis Ngannou and Jairzinho Rozenstruik are absolute savages in the octagon. These two fighters are incredibly similar and Rozenstruik’s career has eerily mirrored Ngannou’s. Both rose up the ranks of the heavyweight division, destroying everyone in their path. Ngannou did suffer two consecutive decision losses in 2018, to Stipe Miocic and Derrick Lewis. Ngannou rebounded nicely, dismantling Curtis Blaydes, Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos all in the first round, totaling less than two and a half minutes combined. On the flip side, Rozenstruik had a phenomenal 2019, knocking out all four men he faced, including Andrei Arlovski and Alistair Overeem.

These two have wins over some of the best the heavyweight division has to offer and of their 13 combined UFC wins, 12 of those came via a violent knockout finish. The other victory was via a submission so when it comes to these two fighters, it won’t go the distance. However, the issue when it comes to fights like this, they could turn into an ugly fight to watch. Both men are tough enough where it would be hard to see the one knock the other one out. If they choose to stand in there and trade punches, it could get really ugly with both men tiring out and making the fight become boring. The key to this fight is one of them not wanting to continuously look for the knockout blow because it is hard to see one getting knocked out, but to try and stay calm, land more effecting blows and take it to the judges scorecard. If the fight does somehow end up on the ground, Ngannou has the ability to finish Rozenstruik. Don’t expect this to be a beautiful fight however, due to the reasons listed above, but if the fight does end early, it should be in spectacular, violent fashion.

Chris’ Pick: Ngannou

Henry Cejudo (15-2) vs Dominick Cruz (22-2) for the World Bantamweight Championship

Well, it is certainly nice to see Dominick Cruz back in the octagon again. Cruz returns to the octagon for the first time since December 30, 2016, where he lost to Cody Garbrandt via unanimous decision, thus losing his championship. The former UFC bantamweight champion is back, looking to reclaim his prize. Cruz’s UFC career has been riddled with injuries since his debut in 2011. Cruz had multiple year layoffs due to a torn ACL in each knee and a torn groin, just to name a few. Cruz had battled back from those injuries to claim major victories over Takeya Mizugaki and T.J. Dillashaw respectively. Cruz has not fougth since dropping the belt so this matchup with Cejudo is interesting.

Cejudo, a very decorated fighter, comes into this fight as the favorite, having won his last five fights. Cejudo took home the olympic gold medal in the 2008 Beijing Olympics and was a two division champion in the UFC. On the surface, Cejudo should roll in this fight due to the amount of time Cruz has been away from the cage, not to mention the breakdown of his body. Dominick Cruz will not make it that easy, at least early on. Cruz is a fighter who will give his opponent many different looks. Cruz is a tough fighter to deal with and one who will easily frustrate his opponents. Like all of his opponents, Cejudo will most likely get frustrated with Cruz and his approach. The question will be how he responds to that. If Cejudo looks to push the pace and get past the many looks Cruz will show him, it could be a good night for the champion. Another major factor in this fight will be the wrestling of Cejudo. The Olympic gold medalist can make this fight a living hell for Cruz if he chooses to. The fighters will take some getting used to in the first round or so but after that, look for Cejudo to go after Cruz, ending any hopes of a comeback story.

Chris’ Pick: Cejudo

Tony Ferguson (25-3) vs Justin Gaethje (21-2) for the Interim Lightweight Championship

It is safe to say, this is not the fight fans were looking to see for the Lightweight Championship. The Coronavirus pandemic has caused travel issues for Khabib Nurmagomedov, who is stuck in Russia, causing UFC President Dana White to call an audible. The original plan was for Ferguson to face Nurmagomedov last month at UFC 249 in Brooklyn. With the issues at hand, Gaethje stepped in to face Ferguson for the interim belt, with the winner hopefully getting a matchup with Khabib. That is, unless Conor McGregor has anything to say about it. Even if Ferguson wins this fight with the bad luck surrounding the Ferguson/Nurmagomedov matchup, it might seemingly never happen.

Back to the task at hand. This should be a fantastic fight between two great fighters. Ferguson hasn’t lost since May 5, 2012, which spans 12 fights and has been the number one contender since 2015. Of those 12 fights, only three of those have gone to the judges scorecard. Ferguson has only been passed up numerous times, only for other fighters to take his spot. Injuries did play a part in that however. This fight is huge for both men as they look to claim the belt and look to unify it against Khabib. This does have the makings of a great fight and one where blood will definitely be shed.

This is a fantastic opportunity for Gaethje to continue to make a name for himself. He knocked off Michael Johnson at the Ultimate Fighter 25 Finale. After that success in his UFC debut, Gaethje suffered a KO loss to Eddie Alvarez and a TKO loss to Dustin Poirier in his next two fights. That’s where the losses stopped though. Gaethje has gone on to win his next three fights, all in spectacular knockout fashion within the first round. Gaethje is one who will plow through damage to punish his opponents. Even though he suffered defeat to Poirier and Alvarez, they were still amazing fights and ones that will live on as some of the best in the history of the organization. The style Gaethje brings is one that will keep you on your toes because he looks to deliver punishment with heavy strikes. It is thought that Gaethje is a one dimensional fighter, with striking as his only tactic. Gaethje is a violent striker who will look to deliver that same punishment to Ferguson.

When you step into the octagon with Tony Ferguson, it is expected you will leave a bloody, beaten up mess. Ferguson has an incredible ability to sustain damage and continue to plow through and finish his opponent. Ferguson is one of the premier fighters in the world who delivers a great jab, coupled with a crippling elbow strike. A traditional slow starter, Ferguson does a great job of reacting and adapting to what his opponent brings. His ability to take damage does help in him come through and battle on to victory. A fight with Ferguson is a war but this matchup with Gaethje will be unlike any other because this might very well be his toughest test yet. This fight will be an all out war with both guys delivering some massive damage to the other. Like with most fights, the one who can adapt the best will come away with the win. Ferguson has ridiculous cardio so if sets the pace, it will be up to Gaethje to keep up. If he can’t, Ferguson could make short work of him. Gaethje will look to push the pace early on, delivering solid punishment to Ferguson in the first round. After that, things could get really interesting. This could easily be a fight of the night candidate and one that fans will be talking about forever. Expect Ferguson to withstand the early pressure and battle on, delivering devastating strikes and bringing home the gold.