ISC Combat Sports prophecy: UFC Fight Night 171

UFC Fight Night 171: Smith vs. Teixeira
5/13/2020
6:00 P.M. EST (Main card starts at 9 P.M.)
ESPN+

The UFC is coming off a very successful UFC 249 event that took place this last weekend. While the world is waiting for live sports to come back into the fold, the UFC delivered on Saturday night with a main card that saw two title fights and two knockouts on the main card. They return with a rare Wednesday UFC Fight Night card, which is the second of three fight cards that were scheduled for this week.

While it seemed like forever since a live UFC event graced our television sets, Dana White and the promotion put on a solid event. Let’s take a look at this much anticipated fight card and the predicted fight winners to see if they can continue the momentum gained from last weekend.

Karl Roberson (9-2) vs Marvin Vettori (14-3-1)

Roberson versus Vettori is a good fight to kick off the main card portion of the event. Roberson did come in 1.5 lbs overweight and was fined 20% of his purse. Roberson is an up and comer and this fight against the Italian Vettori, will be a good gauge on where Roberson stands in his young UFC career. Both Vettori and Roberson will be in a great position to move up the ranks with a victory in this fight. Roberson is the older fighter but has less UFC experience. This should be a good fight and one that could go either way. In comparing the two, Roberson is more dangerous but Vettori is no slouch. Both fighters land an average of over 3 significant strikes (3.08 for Roberson and 3.75 for Vettori) per minute while Roberson absorbs less than a strike per minute on average. Vettori has defended 79% of takedown attempts while Roberson has defended just over half (53%) of attempts. This fight seems to be more evenly matched and aside from Roberson trying to get the knockout, this should end up going to the judges scorecard. Look for Vettori to gain the advantage on the ground and help win enough rounds to get the win.

Chris’ Pick: Vettori

Ray Borg (13-4) vs Ricky Simon (15-3)

Ricky Simon comes into this fight as the favorite and should not have much trouble in this fight. Both Borg and Simon will look to take this fight to the ground as both average over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes. The accuracy of their takedowns isn’t stellar but Simon defends the takedown much better than Borg, stopping 73% of attempts. Borg is the better submission fighter, having half of his wins come via the submission stoppage. While Simon won’t look to knock you out, he will take some serious damage. Simon lands an average of 2.51 significant strikes per minute but absorbs an average of 4.13 significant strikes per minute, which is a very high amount. Simon is the bigger fighter and will surely use that to his advantage. This fight will surely end up on the ground and it is anyone’s fight from there. Once on the fight ends up on the ground, look for Simon to grind the fight out and earn the win.

Chris’ pick: Simon

Drew Dober (22-9) vs Alexander Hernandez (11-2)

This should be an exciting fight and one that could go either way. Both Dober and Hernandez are fighters that will throw a lot of punches and absorb them as well. Hernandez lands an average of 3.93 significant strikes per minute while Dober lands a 4.33 average. Both guys absorb an average of over 4 significant strikes. Dober will want to keep this fight standing because if it goes to the ground, Hernandez should take the win. Dober doesn’t try for takedowns, averaging less than 1 per 15 minutes. Hernandez does average 2.46 per 15 minutes. Hernandez is the quicker fighter so keeping Dober on his toes will be crucial. If Dober wants to get the win, he will need to just put his head down and plow through, delivering strikes. Hernandez will want to stay moving and look for the takedown. Dober will need to be better than the 60% average on his takedown defense, otherwise Hernandez can work it out just enough to win the fight. Look for Dober to do just enough to win the rounds and take the fight.

Chris’ Pick: Dober

Ben Rothwell (37-12) vs Ovince Saint Preux (24-13)

Well, this is an odd matchup for a fight. Both fighters seem to be on the decline, especially Rothwell. Rothwell is a massive man and his size could be a big factor in this matchup. OSP made the move up to heavyweight and could come away with the win. OSP is the better fighter at this point and time and is the favorite in this matchup but isn’t one to put your money on. Rothwell, like OSP has slowed down but does possess enough power to end this fight with one punch. For being a big guy, Rothwell is surprisingly agile, defending 69% of takedown attempts. This is a fight where OSP will want to stay moving and not stand in there to trade shots with Rothwell. If OSP stays mobile, he can avoid the striking of Rothwell and come out of the fight, relatively unscathed. Rothwell lands an average of 3.38 significant strikes per minute but does absorb an average of 6.36 per minute. The size difference will be key in this fight because even though Rothwell takes a lot of damage, the strikes from OSP shouldn’t pose as much of a threat. Look for Rothwell to inflict enough damage to win a few rounds and win the fight.

Chris’ Pick: Rothwell

Anthony Smith (33-14) vs Glover Teixeira (30-7)

For a main event, this is pretty underwhelming. Anthony Smith is the definite favorite against the 40 year-old Teixeira and should not have much of a problem in winning this fight. Despite Teixeira coming into this matchup on a three fight win streak, Smith should be able to end that streak. Smith has finished 91% of his fights, having only two of his wins go to a decision. If this fight goes this distance, it should count as two wins for Teixeira. A win for Teixeira here should thrust him back into the title picture, which seems unfathomable. Both fighters land over 3 significant strikes per minute on average. While on paper, this seems to be a mismatch, Teixeira is a veteran who knows how to survive in a fight. That experience will be key for Teixeira in this matchup because Smith is faster and much younger. That will be something to watch because should this fight go to the ground, Teixeira has the advantage. Could he finish Smith on the ground? Perhaps he could but the money is on Smith to use his youth and speed to help carry him to victory. Don’t expect the fight to make it to the judge’s scorecard. Smith should do enough to stop Teixeira in within the first three rounds.