ISC Combat Sports Prophecy: UFC 251

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
7/11/2020
6:00 P.M. EST (PPV Main card starts at 10 P.M.)
UFC Fight Pass, ESPN, ESPN+ PPV

This is the first event at the much talked about Fight Island that UFC President Dana White had presented months ago. With the coronavirus pandemic throwing a wrench into the plans of everyone, the UFC was one of the first sporting organizations to put on live events. The fight island idea was something White had put out there and he came through. With the last few events taking place at the UFC Apex facility, the company shifts their focus to Yas Island, aka Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. With this being the first fight card on fight island, the UFC is going all out, putting out a phenomenal event.

Let’s take a look at this massive fight card and the fight winners.

Amanda Ribas (9-1) vs Paige VanZant (8-4)

This is an interesting fight to kick off the main card. On paper this is a sizeable mismatch, where Ribas comes in as the overwhelming favorite and shouldn’t have too many problems in dispatching PVZ. In what appears to be VanZant’s last fight in the promotion, this is not an ideal matchup for her. Ribas has won her first three fights in the UFC, while on the flip side, PVZ has dropped three of her last five fights in the promotion. However, PVZ has not fought since January 19, 2019, where she submitted Rachael Ostovich in the second round. There isn’t much more to say in this fight, as Ribas should be able to keep VanZant at bay if the fight goes to the ground. VanZant is a dangerous fighter overall if the fight goes to the ground, she has the ability to finish the fight. VanZant does have the ability to land a knockout but her last knockout win was almost four years ago. Expect Ribas to come away with a solid victory, sending VanZant out of the UFC.

Chris’ Pick: Ribas

Jessica Andrade (20-7) vs Rose Namajunas (8-4)

This is a fight that has some major importance for both fighters. Both Jessica Andrade and Rose Namajunas are coming off losses. The last fight for Namajunas was a second round knockout loss to Andrade and is coming into this fight, motivated to avenge that loss. Namajunas was in control of the fight against Andrade but all it took was one shot and that was all she wrote. Namajunas has the size advantage and will need to use that in this fight. Andrade has the power to end the fight with one shot but expect Namajunas to adjust accordingly from that loss in 2019. Andrade lands and average of 6.55 significant strikes to just an average 3.95 for Namajunas. Namajunas has the size and reach to negate the striking power of Andrade. That was the case in the first matchup, that is until Andrade slammed her to the mat. Rose should adjust her gameplan and be able to build off the positives from the first matchup. Look for Namajunas to work her way to a rebound victory.

Chris’ pick: Namajunas

Petr Yan (14-1) vs Jose Aldo (28-6) for the vacant Bantamweight title

This fight has a lot of intrigue. Aldo is one of the greatest to ever do it, while Yan is heading up the charts to stardom. Yan enters this fight on a six fight win streak while Aldo will go down as one of the greatest featherweights in the history of the sport. He did suffer bad losses to Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski which shows us that Aldo’s career has regressed. While this should be a great fight, Yan looks to be the one who should walk away with the victory in this fight. Aldo has the reach advantage but Yan has the advantage in average significant strikes per minute, 5.65 compared to Aldo’s 3.47 average. Both fighters absorb around three significant strikes per minute, which is a major stat when you see the total ratio. Yan also averages 1.73 takedowns compared to 0.64 for Aldo. The key here is it is virtually impossible to take Aldo down. For someone who is not a wrestler, Aldo has incredible takedown defense. With that being the case, don’t expect Yan to attempt to take Aldo down. Look for Yan to press to pace and walk into Aldo, landing significant strikes. Aldo does have a three inch reach advantage so that will be something to watch in this fight but if it could be a recipe for disaster if Aldo chooses to stand in there with Yan. Aldo’s best defense will be to land leg kicks to keep that pressure at bay. This fight will certainly deliver and could be a bloodbath. Look for both fighters to go toe-to-toe but Yan to come away with the Bantamweight title. With the Bantamweight division being one of the deepest in the promotion and a murderers row awaiting them, this will be just the beginning for whomever comes away with the belt.

Chris’ Pick: Yan

Alexander Volkanovski (C) (21-1) vs Max Holloway (21-5) for the Featherweight title

Alexander Volkanovski could certainly be one of the most underrated champions in the UFC. The featherweight division has a long list of great fighters so it is easy to see how Volkanovski has been overlooked. This is a rematch of dominant win Volkanovski captured over Holloway back in December. With Volkanovski defeating Holloway with little issue, it is crucial for Holloway to make the adjustments if he has any hope of capturing the belt. Volkanovski is not an exciting fighter but one who just seems to get the job done and that is how he got the job done against Holloway in the first fight. Systematically dismantling Holloway with a flurry of leg kicks and taking away any sort of offense from him is exactly what got the job done for Volkanovski. Now that could be another easy way to get the win but rest assured, Holloway will have made adjustments to his gameplan. This fight won’t go the way the first one did, at least you wouldn’t think so. Holloway trained with his coaches via Zoom calls throughout the quarantine, while Volkanovski trained with his coaches. That would seem to be a major factor in this fight as having that in-person training time with your coach is invaluable. Holloway is a fantastic fighter so it might not be as much of a factor as it would be for some but the lopside result from the first fight makes it seem like it would be more important. If Holloway can stay away from the kicks, he also needs to be wary of the wrestling from Volkanovski but if he can take that part away as well, it is hard to see a path to victory for Holloway based off how the previous one went. Expect Volkanovski to keep the title with another workman like performance, winning this fight on the judges scorecard.

Chris’ Pick: Volkanovski

Kamaru Usman (C) (16-1) vs Jorge Masvidal (35-13) for the Welterweight title

Finally, it is Jorge Masvidal’s shot at the welterweight belt. Masvidal is the most senior fighter to ever get a first title shot in the history of the UFC. This is Masvidal’s 49th pro fight and his first title shot, which is staggering. The champion Usman enters this fight on an 11-fight win streak while Masvidal has won his last three fights. Usman is the younger fighter who has the height and reach advantage. The reach advantage is something that you can keep an eye on. Both fighters land over 4 significant strikes per minute (4.6 for Usman and 4.34 for Masvidal) and each average an accuracy of around 50% (52% for Usman and 47% for Masvidal) landed. Both fighters absorb around an average of three significant strikes per minute. While both fighters are similar on their feet this fight could be won on the mat. Usman averages a takedown per round and uses that to ground and pound while Masvidal averages a takedown per 15 minutes. While the takedown will be huge in this fight, it will be on Usman’s terms, not Masvidal’s. Usman has never been taken down in the UFC. Masvidal has a 78% takedown defense rate but that isn’t in the range of Usman. Neither fighter will look to finish the fight via a submission as that is just not their game. The wrestling of Usman is the major factor in this fight. This fight won’t likely be the greatest one to watch because you can expect Usman to keep this fight on the ground, using his wrestling. If Masvidal wants to use his kicks to keep Usman at range, that could spell disaster for him because the wrestling skill of Usman could make it easy to take Masvidal down. It is hard not to see Usman taking down Masvidal, either by catching his kicks or using the cage to help assist in taking him down. This fight looks to be one for the champion to retain by using his wrestling and ground game to grind out rounds. This fight won’t end early but will be a decision victory for the champion.

Giga Chikadze (8-2) vs Mike Davis (8-2)

Anthony Hernandez (7-1) vs Kevin Holland (16-5)

Miguel Baeza (8-0) vs Matt Brown (22-16)

Chris Asbrock is a staff writer and analyst for Impact Sports Cincinnati and can be followed on Twitter  Follow @iamchrisasbrock and Follow @ISCincy

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