ISC Combat Sports Prophecy: UFC 264

UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3
7/10/2021
6:15 P.M. EST (PPV Main card starts at 10 P.M.)
ESPN+, ESPN, ESPN+ PPV

The UFC has had a great 2021 so far, putting on solid fight cards from top to bottom. One of the best fight cards of the year so far was UFC 261. The event had some of the craziest moments in the history of the sport. With the hype surrounding UFC 264, will this event provide some of those moments as well? Every time there is a Conor McGregor fight card, there is an incredible amount of hype, especially during fight week. That is certainly the case for UFC 264.

This will be the first full capacity fight event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, since the pandemic began. What a way to kick off the so-called normalcy again, than with a Conor McGregor fight card in Las Vegas. Things couldn’t have played out any better in terms of the attendance and fight card quality for the UFC. This year has been packed with solid fight cards and UFC 264 is no different.

Let’s take a look at this solid fight card and the fight winners.

Kris Moutinho (9-4) vs Sean O’Malley (13-1) – Bantamweight

Sean O’Malley was slated to face Louis Smolka but Smolka was forced with withdrawal from the fight with an injury. Stepping into this fight is Kris Moutinho, who will be making his UFC debut. Moutinho is coming off of two straight victories, in CES and Cage Fury Fighting Championships respectively, both due to stoppage. Four of his nine wins have come before the judges scorecard. On the flip side, Sugar Sean O’Malley is coming off a TKO victory over Thomas Almeida at UFC 260 in March. Almost a year ago, O’Malley suffered his first professional loss, to Marlon Vera via TKO in the first round. That won’t be the case in this fight. O’Malley has the size and striking advantage and will use that to quickly end any hopes Moutinho would have of a dazzling UFC debut. This will be a victory for Moutinho if he can make it out of the first round as this is not a good first fight for him. O’Malley should make relatively quick work of the UFC newcomer.

Chris’ Pick: O’Malley

Irene Aldana (12-6) vs Yana Kunitskaya (14-5) – Women’s Bantamweight

On a card full of solid fights, this one might be the closest and toughest to pick. Aside from the main and co-main events, this is a fight that you won’t want to miss because it could truly go either way. While this could be an ugly fight, it will sure be a back and forth fight. Aldana is the superior striker and will look to pressure Kunitskaya, which will in turn, make her uncomfortable. Kunitskaya suffered a TKO defeat to Aspen Ladd in December of 2019. That was a fight where Ladd pressured Kunitskaya, eventually knocking her out in the third round. The striking pressure of Aldana will be the tell-tale sign of this fight and how it will play out. If Aldana can make it miserable for Kunitskaya standing up, look for Kunitskaya to try and alleviate that pressure, with her own, trying to take Aldana down. That will be the key to success for the Russian because if she can keep Aldana on the ground, Kunitskaya will be able to control her and ground out some rounds. With this fight most likely being a back and forth, expect Kunitskaya to grind out some time on the ground and winning via decision.

*** UPDATE *** – Aldana missed weight by 3.5 lbs…fight is still slated to move forward with Aldana forfeiting 30% of her fight purse

Chris’ pick: Kunitskaya

Greg Hardy (7-3) vs Tai Tuivasa (12-3) – Heavyweight

If you want a fight where bombs will be thrown, this is your type of fight. Both fighters have the capability to recklessly knock out their opponents. Greg Hardy is a fighter, who coming in, is not well liked by many people. That is one reason why Hardy remains a draw. At one time, the UFC viewed him as a promising prospect but his UFC form has not been impressive. While Hardy possesses the knockout power, which was the result in six of his seven professional victories, if the fight lasts longer than a round, things tend to go south for the former NFL defensive lineman. Cardio has never been a top asset for Hardy. Both fighters are coming into this fight having won two of their last three fights. Hardy is coming off a second round TKO loss to Marcin Tybura in December. On the flip side, Tai Tuivasa made quick work of his last two opponents, knocking out Harry Hunsucker and Stefan Struve in the first round. The key to this fight will be if Tuivasa can push the pace and tire Hardy out. A tired Hardy will give Tuivasa a chance to send him out with a loss. Tuivasa must set the pace in this fight and wear down Hardy, otherwise Hardy can land that knockout blow before the end of the first round. Look for Hardy to land some solid shots with Tuivasa being able to withstand them and being able to finish this fight before the judges scorecard.

Chris’ Pick: Tuivasa

Gilbert Burns (19-4) vs Stephen Thompson (16-4-1) – Welterweight

This co-main event is one that carries a ton of stakes for two of the great guys in mixed martial arts. A victory will most likely put the winner into the next title fight against the winner of the likely Kamaru Usman/Colby Covington fight. Gilbert Burns is coming into this fight on the heels of a third round knockout to Usman at UFC 258 in February. Thompson has yet to face Usman nor Covington so this would be a fresh matchup for the Welterweight title. Before that loss to Usman, Burns was on a six fight win streak and will look to restart a streak with a victory over Thompson. This fight should be very intriguing between two fighters with very different styles. Thompson brings a very unorthodox karate-style compared to Burns who brings striking and grappling to the table. This fight will be decided by whomever dictates the fight. If Thompson can keep this fight standing, he should set himself up for a victorious night. If Burns is able to utilize his speed and close the range on Thompson and take him to the ground, the superior grappling for Burns should reign supreme. This fight could truly go either way but expect this fight to go to the judges for a decision.

Chris’ Pick: Burns

Dustin Poirier (27-6) vs Conor McGregor (22-5) – Lightweight

Conor McGregor is back to being the Conor of old. The brash, trash-talking man is back and was on full display at the pre-fight press conference. Regardless of what your opinion is of Conor and his antics, it cannot be argued that he is one of the most intriguing fighters of all time. Both fighters have knocked out the other in their previous fights and this third fight will be the most telling. The pressure that is on both fighters is immense and the winner will be firmly planted into the title picture. The first time they fought in 2014, Conor got the win via TKO in the first round. January of 2021 was a different story as Dustin Poirier landed the TKO win in the second round. The last fight was a different Poirier than we saw in 2014. The hype surrounding this fight is real and the crowd at the press conference proved that.

This fight is very intriguing on how it will play out. Will it be more like the first fight in 2014 or the rematch just six months ago? You can expect this fight to be more like the rematch in January. Conor, who is one of the most accurate strikers in the history of MMA, is a notoriously fast starter. That will be the expectation in this fight as well. Their last fight saw Conor come out and take it to Poirier in the first round before eventually getting knocked out in the second round. Poirier used leg kicks to his advantage to keep McGregor at bay, weakening his legs and taking away that power. This fight will truly be determined on which Conor shows up. At this point, Poirier is the best lightweight in the world and a victory will prove that. This fight will be determined on how Conor is able to adjust as the fight goes on. If he is unable to land the knockout blow to Poirier, Conor will push the pedal down and chase the finish. That route will cause him to gas out, allowing Poirier to take it to him. A loss for Conor could severely damage his reputation and legacy. This could certainly spell the end for Conor. That could play a major part in how this fight plays out. The pressure is more firmly on Conor’s shoulders and that could cause him to push harder in this fight. Don’t expect this fight to end in the first couple of rounds but look for Conor to eventually gas out in the later rounds and fall to Poirier.