Backwards K Baseball: Top 10 Free Agent Predictions

There might not be any offseason in sports better than baseball. Major League Baseball has always done a fantastic job of keeping the fans engaged in the sport and that once again is the case this hot stove season. This year is again, one of the top free agent classes that we have seen. With that being the case, it could take a bit for these players to sign, simply because it might take for another player or two to start the chain reaction of signings. As we have seen in years past, once a certain player signs, the dominoes start to fall.

Will that be the case this year? That will most likely once again this offseason and teams wait and see when and if they need to focus their attention on other players.

ISC’s Chris Asbrock gives his predictions on where the top 10 free agents will sign.

1. Aaron Judge 10 years, $330MM. – Prediction: Giants

Aaron Judge and where he will ultimately sign is one of the biggest storylines this offseason. The Yankees have repeatedly stated that they will not be outbid for Judge’s services. There are numerous teams to be in the running, which include the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees and Mets to name a few. For Judge, this really comes down to the Yankees and Giants. Judge is from the Bay Area which makes the Giants an intriguing fit. While he most likely goes back to the Yankees, I’m banking on the hometown Giants to make a significant push to bring home the star player. Look for the Giants to go 10 years, which will in turn be a deferment of payment at the end of the contract.

UPDATE – Yankees: 9 years, $360MM

2. Carlos Correa 9 years, $275MM. – Prediction: Dodgers

Correa is the highest profile shortstop that is out on the market this season. He was last season as well but was unable to get the deal he was looking for and thus ended up signing a three year deal with opt outs with the Minnesota Twins. This year, Correa will get his deal. There seems to be some thought that he will be courted by a lot of teams, which will be the case but look for three teams to be in heavily on Correa. The Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and Minnesota Twins will be the three teams that will be most in on Correa. The Dodgers have a ton of money to spend but the question is whether or not they will tone it down this offseason and make the major push for Shohei Ohtani next offseason. If the Giants are unable to land Aaron Judge, they will most certainly pivot to Correa and make him their main focus. The Twins are the team he was with last season and have money to spend as well. Correa did enjoy his time there so don’t count them out as a possible destination.

1st UPDATE – Giants: 13 years, $350MM (issues with Correa’s physical)
2nd UPDATE – Mets: 12 years, $315MM (issues with Correa’s physical)
Final UPDATE – Twins: 6 years, $200MM

3. Trea Turner 9 years, $280MM. – Prediction: Phillies

Out of the shortstop crop, Turner might be the one who will be in the highest demand and might be the better of the group. Turner was fantastic during his short time in LA. It is pretty clear that Turner desires to head back East, which is going to make it difficult for the Dodgers to bring him back. The Phillies are a team that have money to spend and will be in on one of the four shortstops. Turner is their top priority so look for the Phillies to make a serious push for the services of Turner.

UPDATE – Phillies: 11 years, $300MM

4. Xander Bogaerts 8 years, $185MM. – Prediction: Red Sox

Phillies President of Baseball Operations, Dave Dombrowski has a familiarity with Bogaerts from their time in Boston. That will come into play if Trea Turner doesn’t end up in Philly. Look for Bogaerts to end up back in Boston as the Red Sox cannot afford to lose another big name player and Bogaerts is their guy. With Rafael Devers set to be a free agent next year, Boston will spend to keep their guy at Fenway before bringing Devers back next year.

UPDATE – Padres: 11 years, $280MM

5. Dansby Swanson 8 years, $150MM. – Prediction: Cubs

Swanson is a great player and a great shortstop but in this market, he’s the fourth best available. The Braves have seemingly moved on from Swanson so don’t expect them to be the highest bidder. The Chicago Cubs are the team that is the best fit for Swanson. His wife, Mallory Pugh, plays professional soccer for the Chicago Red Stars so that would be a logical place for Swanson to sign. The Cubs will once again be willing to spend and might end up overpaying for Swanson to sign there, despite his willingness to.

UPDATE – Cubs: 7 years, $177MM

6. Carlos Rodon 5 years, $140MM. – Prediction: Mets

Rodon is one of the top free agent arms available and will be wanted by many teams. Rodon is younger than deGrom and Verlander so he is more attractive for teams looking for pitching stability. Rodon will get heavy looks from the teams in New York. With deGrom most likely leaving, Mets owner Steve Cohen will need to replace him and Rodon will be the perfect replacement. Rodon in New York will be great and will be a great addition to the Mets rotation.

UPDATE – Yankees: 6 years, $162MM

7. Jacob deGrom 3 years, $120MM. – Prediction: Rangers

deGrom along with Verlander are the two top three pitchers available this offseason. While Rodon is ranked higher and younger, deGrom and Verlander are the cream of the crop. Health has always been an issue for deGrom but when he is healthy, there is no better pitcher on the planet. It had come out that deGrom had reached out to Texas, indicating a willingness to sign there. Texas and deGrom would be a perfect match. Texas has money to spend and deGrom is needing a change of scenery so expect deGrom to head to the Lone Star state.

UPDATE – Rangers: 5 years, $150MM

8. Justin Verlander 3 years, $120MM. – Prediction: Dodgers

Justin Verlander is defying father time and will benefit from it. The defending American League Cy Young Award winner will find a new home this offseason and the Dodgers will be that team. Verlander will be 40 when the season starts, so a long term deal will obviously be out of the question. Teams that will be in on Verlander will have to fork out a short-term, high AAV (Average Annual Value) contract. A two-year deal will most likely be what Verlander gets but for a team to get their ace, they might have to go to a third year to secure his services.

UPDATE – Mets: 2 years, $85MM

9. Brandon Nimmo 6 years, $120MM. – Prediction: Blue Jays

Nimmo is a leadoff hitting, left handed batting, center fielder who gets on base at a fantastic rate. Nimmo is the perfect fit for a lot of teams so look for many teams to be in on him. The Mets truly cannot afford to lose him and a team like the Toronto Blue Jays are the PERFECT fit for Nimmo. The Jays have money to spend and adding Nimmo will give them the much needed left handed bat and will allow George Springer to move to right field. The Blue Jays will be the team that will go hardest for Nimmo while the Mets are the team that cannot afford to lose him. Expect Nimmo to head north to Toronto and be their new leadoff hitter.

UPDATE – Mets: 8 years, $162MM

10. Willson Contreras 5 years, $80MM. – Prediction: Cardinals

Yadier Molina has now retired and there is a major void at the catcher position for St. Louis and Contreras is the perfect fit for the Cardinals. The issue is whether or not the Cardinals will pursue catching help via the trade market or via free agency. If the route they take is through trade, Sean Murphy from Oakland or any of the Toronto Blue Jays trio of catchers, is where they will likely go. If they choose free agency, watch for Contreras to be the one that lands in St. Louis. Murphy will cost a lot to bring in via trade so look for Contreras to be the one who capitalizes.

UPDATE – Cardinals: 5 years, $87.5MM

Wild Card: Kodai Senga 5 years, $75MM. – Prediction: Dodgers

The Blue Jays and Dodgers are clubs that are needing a front line starter and Senga fits that mold. Senga had made some serious waves in Japan and looks to be the next star coming overseas. The Dodgers had success in the past with Hideo Nomo so why not look to capitalize on Senga. There is some speculation that the Dodgers will look to take it easy this offseason, shed some payroll and put themselves in a position to be a major player for Shohei Ohtani. The Dodgers still have money to play with and adding Senga will be a huge get, while also being a huge help in possibly bringing Ohtani to Chavez Ravine.

UPDATE – Mets: 5 years, $75MM

This will once again be an offseason for Scott Boras. Boras has Carlos Rodon, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo on this list so he will once again get his guys paid. This offseason will be fun to watch play out as teams will be jockeying for position to bring in the top tier talent and see how they pivot if they don’t get their guy.

Chris Asbrock is the owner, writer and analyst for Impact Sports Cincinnati and can be followed on Twitter Follow @iamchrisasbrock and Follow @ISCincy